Wedoany.com Report-Sept. 1, France, the European Union’s leading grain producer, expects a significant increase in wheat exports outside the EU for the 2025/26 season, following a challenging 2024/25 season, according to a report by Argus Media released on Thursday. The country recently completed its 2025 harvest, estimated at 33.4 million tonnes, a 30% increase from the previous year’s rain-affected crop.

In 2024/25, non-EU wheat exports dropped to a century-low of 3.5 million tonnes due to the poor harvest. Argus projects exports to rebound to 8 million tonnes in 2025/26, with Morocco expected to be the largest market, importing 2.5 million tonnes. However, global competition and reduced demand from traditional markets like Algeria and China may pose challenges. Argus noted that France would need to export 9.5 million tonnes to balance its supply, citing recent sales to Egypt and Southeast Asia as evidence of growing demand.

Despite the export increase, France is projected to end the 2025/26 season with 4 million tonnes of soft wheat stocks, the highest since 2004/05. FranceAgriMer, the national agriculture agency, forecasted slightly lower exports at 7.5 million tonnes and stocks at 3.9 million tonnes, still a 21-year high. These substantial stockpiles reflect robust production but may pressure prices.

Global wheat supplies remain ample, driving prices to a five-year low. In France, farmgate prices for the 2025 crop are approximately 30 euros below the estimated production cost of 200 euros ($234.14) per tonne, according to Argus. This gap could challenge farmers’ profitability. Maxence Devillers, an Argus analyst, stated at a news presentation: “Overall, prices this season will be driven by a battle between strong fundamentals, high stocks and strong retention by producers.”

The combination of high production and large stockpiles underscores the need for strategic export efforts to manage supply. France’s ability to secure markets in regions like North Africa and Southeast Asia will be critical to balancing its wheat surplus. The projected export growth supports economic activity in the agricultural sector, while the high stockpiles highlight the importance of market dynamics in maintaining price stability.

This forecast reflects France’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its position as a major wheat exporter while addressing domestic surplus. The agricultural sector is poised to navigate global market challenges, leveraging increased production to meet international demand and support sustainable economic growth.