Wedoany.com Report-Dec.8, Global corn market conditions remain balanced, with adequate supply meeting expected demand and limited drivers for sharp price swings. Attention has centred on delayed U.S. export sales data, which the USDA resumed publishing twice weekly (Mondays and Thursdays) after a two-month pause. The latest figures show U.S. corn export sales from 1 September to 16 October reached 33.5 million tonnes — 10 million tonnes higher than the same period last year. If this pace holds, full-year sales could reach 81 million tonnes, exceeding the USDA's current projection of 78 million tonnes and providing potential support for CBOT prices currently consolidating near US$4.40 per bushel.

The USDA's December supply-demand report is not expected to contain major revisions for corn. Significant production adjustments, if any, are more likely in the final January estimate scheduled for January 2026.

In South America, Argentina has completed 50% of its 2025/26 corn planting under generally favourable conditions. November rainfall was above average in key regions, supporting early crop development. Export pace remains moderate, with 26 million tonnes sold and 25.3 million tonnes shipped year-to-date against an annual target of 34–35 million tonnes.

Brazil's corn exports continue steadily, reaching 37.2 million tonnes so far in the marketing year. November shipments are tracking toward 5.5–6 million tonnes, while December line-up stands at 4.1 million tonnes. The full-year target of 41 million tonnes appears achievable, leaving estimated carry-over stocks of around 13 million tonnes into 2026. A growing portion of these stocks — 6–8 million tonnes — is expected to be held by ethanol plants for use during the regional off-season, reducing freely tradable inventory to approximately 5–6 million tonnes.

Domestic Brazilian prices typically firm toward year-end due to seasonal factors: holiday-related logistics slowdowns, reduced warehouse activity, and precautionary buyer stocking ahead of the December–January break. These upward pressures are considered normal and not indicative of underlying supply tightness.

Planting of Brazil's summer soybean crop has been delayed in parts of the Center-North, with significant areas sown only in the second half of November. While this shifts some development timelines later, no widespread losses have been reported. The second (safrinha) corn crop, planted from February onward, remains the primary focus for 2026 supply. Any acreage shift toward sorghum or delayed planting would be confined to specific regions and is not expected to materially alter national production potential at this stage.

Market participants are monitoring December–January rainfall across southern Brazil and Argentina for signs of short-term dryness associated with possible weak La Niña conditions, though current forecasts suggest only modest precipitation reduction rather than severe drought. Overall, the global corn outlook heading into 2026 remains comfortable, with price direction largely dependent on final U.S. export volume confirmation and South American weather patterns over the next 60–90 days.