Wedoany.com Report-Dec.8, Challenging weather during the corn harvest, elevated grain moisture levels, constrained silo storage for drying and intake, combined with rising delivery expenses to ports, have contributed to a notable decline in corn values at Ukrainian inland facilities.

Further strain on the market has resulted from heightened insurance and shipping costs at Ukrainian ports, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to maritime transport.

As of November 28, Ukrainian farmers had gathered 22.486 million tonnes of corn from 3.31 million hectares, covering 75% of the planned area, with an average yield of 6.79 tonnes per hectare. Weather forecasts indicate cooler temperatures and drier conditions in the coming week, which should modestly lower moisture content—currently ranging from 25% to 35%—and facilitate the final stages of gathering.

Transportation expenses for grain from inland sites to ports have climbed by 400 to 1,000 UAH per tonne, reaching 1,400 to 2,000 UAH per tonne, amid growing volumes of available grain and insufficient transport availability. Consequently, buyers have adjusted acquisition rates downward to 8,200 to 8,600 UAH per tonne.

At Black Sea ports in Ukraine, indicative export values for corn have decreased by 50 to 150 UAH per tonne over the past week, settling at 9,850 to 9,900 UAH per tonne, equivalent to $206 to $207 per tonne, for December shipments.

Corn shipment volumes from Ukraine continue at a subdued rate. For the 2025/26 marketing year to date, exports total 3.88 million tonnes, a sharp reduction from the 7.6 million tonnes recorded in the corresponding period of the prior year.

Over the recent week, December corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade advanced 1.1% to $172 per tonne, reflecting a 0.5% monthly gain, buoyed in part by perceptions of constrained Ukrainian outflows. Nevertheless, the broader market faces downward influences from projections of ample worldwide wheat and corn availability.

According to estimates from Brazil's National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC), the country anticipates shipping 5 million tonnes of corn in December, matching November's figure and surpassing the 3.6 million tonnes dispatched in December 2024. This uptick is poised to heighten rivalry for shipments from the United States and Ukraine in international markets.

Recent data as of early December underscores the ongoing harvest challenges and their ripple effects. Updated figures show Ukrainian corn exports reaching 3.7 million tonnes by December 1, still trailing last season's pace by nearly 47%. Port prices have held steady in the $206 to $207 per tonne range for prompt delivery, while domestic silo bids reflect persistent logistics pressures.

Favourable frost and aridity next week could accelerate completion, potentially easing moisture issues and bolstering quality for remaining fields. Globally, Brazilian volumes are set to intensify competition, as ANEC's forecast aligns with robust domestic production supporting elevated outflows.

These dynamics highlight the interplay of local operational hurdles and international supply trends shaping Ukraine's corn sector. Traders monitor port logistics closely, with expectations that improved weather may stabilise inland pricing in the near term, though export momentum remains tempered by broader abundance signals from major producers.