Wedoany.com Report-Aug. 27, Indonesia’s poultry sector is continuing to expand, though challenges remain due to subdued consumer demand and declining farmgate prices, according to a recent report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

Broiler numbers are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.7% through 2029. In 2025, Indonesia’s broiler and layer populations are forecast to reach 3.4 billion and 450 million head, respectively, compared with 3.28 billion and 341 million in 2024. Imports of grandparent stock are also set to rise, indicating a 6.1% increase in poultry production in 2025.

Despite this growth outlook, weak purchasing power among consumers is weighing on the market. A surplus of broiler meat has emerged, and live bird prices in April and May 2025 averaged between Rp 15,000 and Rp 17,000 per kilogram, below the production cost of approximately Rp 18,000/kg. In response, farmers have been delaying sales, leading to heavier birds entering the market. This practice has also raised feed consumption levels.

Total poultry feed production for 2024/25 is estimated at 21.4 million metric tons (MMT). This figure is expected to increase by about 3% to 23.3 MMT in 2025/26. Poultry is the dominant consumer of feed in Indonesia, accounting for roughly 90% of total feed use. By comparison, aquaculture represents 6% and cattle and swine combined make up the remaining 4%.

On the consumption side, poultry meat continues to gain importance in the national diet. Per capita consumption is projected to rise to 13.2 kilograms in 2024, up from 12.6 kilograms in 2023, reflecting poultry’s role as a primary protein source in Indonesia.

Feed formulation is also evolving, with feed mills expected to increase corn inclusion rates. Corn usage in feed is forecast to grow from 48% in 2024/25 to 50% in 2025/26, underlining its importance as a staple input for poultry feed production.

While Indonesia’s poultry industry shows clear signs of structural growth through rising populations and feed demand, the sector is experiencing short-term pressure from oversupply and low farmgate prices. Balancing production with consumer demand will remain a key issue for producers in the coming years.

The combination of higher poultry output, feed industry expansion, and shifts in dietary consumption patterns highlights both opportunities and risks for Indonesia’s livestock sector. If consumer demand strengthens in parallel with production growth, the poultry industry is positioned to sustain its role as the leading driver of the country’s feed consumption and protein supply.